Last forecasts prior to elections
Between our last forecasts and to the date, several Georgian news outlets published their polls. Following the publication of Formula, Mtavari Arkhi, and Imedi’s polls, we also updated our polling averages. Notably, fieldwork for the latest polls were finished on September 25, meaning that they do not account for events that happened after this date, namely Mikheil Saakashvili’s yet another announcement that he plans returning to Georgia.
According to our forecasts, the Georgian Dream would probably get 37% in elections, following the UNM with 27%, and For Georgia with 9%. Similar to the previous forecast, all other parties poll below 5%.
Looking at temporal trends, by September 25th, GD’s polling numbers were declining, while ratings for the UNM and For Georgia - growing. Nonetheless, presumably events that happened following the publication of the last polls might have affected the way poll numbers move. On top of that, as the ruling party has larger resources of mobilizing voters, a phenomenon that is hard to measure through polls, it is likely that the Georgian Dream might be able to garner more votes than predicted in this forecast.
This might be our last forecast prior to elections, as Friday is the Day of Silence in Georgia. We might update forecasts if covariates in the model (inflation, USD/GEL exchange rate, COVID-19 numbers) shift significantly, or if new polls are publicly available.